Hello All,
I'll be offline and away until Monday, November 3. I encourage you to check in with my fellow NECN meteorologists at WeatherNewEngland.com and to submit your images, observations, analysis or video to NationalWeatherOnline.com as the weather stays active across our region.
Best,
Matt
It may seem a bit odd to find a political analysis piece authored by a professional meteorologist. After all, what could politics and the weather have in common that could give us insight on one or the other? Certainly, we’re all aware that both topics serve as excellent conversation pieces, but a closer inspection finds much more in common between a Presidential campaign and a blockbuster storm than one may imagine: guessed at by many, but mastered by few; behaving as predicted much of the time, but dishing out major surprises without warning; available statistical guidance and numerical models designed to guide, but not forecast; and a complex network of interactions that is often over-simplified to draw conclusions that were never meant to be reached on limited data...
This post appeared Thursday on WeatherNewEngland.com. Click Here to Read the complete post!
Another Sunday night prospectus - the time when I sit down and look at the upcoming "big picture" in the forecast to have a foundation to build from as the week brings the need for attention to detail.
For those of you who've looked at the prognostics for this week, it's enough to do a double take for sure! Aloft, we have a series of strong upper level lows near and over the Northeast, and this is going to keep things interesting. In the short term, a formidable ocean storm develops Sunday night through Monday, stacked beneath a well defined upper low, but remains progressive and stays offshore as the upper low starts out positively tilted until it nears Nova Scotia Monday night, at which point it interacts with the fast Westerlies and gets a push out.
By that point, a new, strong shortwave is digging through the Central Great Lakes, and this one means business. It's the combination of a piece of energy from the Aleutian Low by Alaska, and the polar vortex near the North Pole. This shortwave amplifies as it nears the mean trough position over the Northeastern United States. For those of you who've been keeping up with my day-to-day discussions on WeatherNewEngland.com, you've seen my thoughts on a colder-than-normal pattern with a chance for a significant precipitation event sneaking back in. The first of this combination comes this week, as the amplifying shortwave becomes a closed upper low, transitioning from positive to neutral tilt as it moves from New England to Nova Scotia. We should get a surface low developing in the cyclonic vorticity advection and upper level diffluence ahead of the vorticity maximum, and this will continue shooting east on Tuesday. But the air aloft is so cold with the upper level low - to the tune of -27 to -28 C at 500 mb - that this provides strong mid-level instability, and a resultant inverted/Norlun trough, perhaps even with a surface low circulation along it! This is important because, with a northeast wind behind the departing initial surface low, this means a moist several thousand feet in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and cold advection that brings widespread 850 mb temperatures below zero late Tuesday through Tuesday night and into Wednesday. 500 to 1000 mb thickness values are also below the critical 5400 dm values that would indicate snow for all of New England.
Of course, this time of the year it isn't all so simple. Critical will be the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere, which may be moist and chilly on a northeast flow, but will have significant trouble cooling for anything but a cold, cold rain in most spots. In the mountains of Maine and the Crown of Maine, however, a northeast flow means a surface wind directly from the center of the cold anticyclone east of James Bay, Canada. At least from the big, Sunday night picture, that tells me it should be cold enough for snow in these northern and elevated areas of Maine Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the potential for the cold to make it into the higher terrain of the White Mountains of New Hampshire!!! The hardest part of making this happen will be the surface/near ground cold advection, but in higher terrain this is always much easier to do.
Wednesday it looks like lots of junk lingers - low level moisture, chilly air, leftover convective bursts near a lingering inverted front as the upper low only slowly moves east. Thereafter, the next huge high builds in with very chilly but dry conditions thru Friday. There are divergent solutions for what happens with the deep upper level low from the nation's midsection by next weekend, but this all clearly points to a strengthening and retrograding longwave pattern.
You guys have any thoughts on this week? Add 'em in the comments!
Matt
I'm not sure this is anything BRAND new - sounds a lot like a LIDAR setup to me - but I found the article interesting and thought you would, too, from Inside Engineer, in Britain. I'll see what I can find out about the difference between this and a LIDAR setup.
BTW: Have you checked out NationalWeatherOnline.com lately? Some interesting stories on the Headlines Page (a.k.a. "Breaking Weather News), including how pollution can come into play with clouds in the Himalayan Mountains, and updates on the new Santa Ana winds and resultant fires. Remember that I've stopped updating weather headlines and instead am including a link to that site in my menu at the top of the page, or by clicking here.
Matt
"Scientists at the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
have developed a system that measures the individual layers of cloud
above us, which in addition to allowing forecasters to more precisely
predict the weather, the information gathers will also enable aircraft
pilots to judge more accurately whether it is safe to take off and land
in diverse weather conditions, offering a powerful safety capability
for civil airports and military air bases." Click here for the complete article.
Special thanks goes out to Tony Hake, of the Denver Weather Examiner, for doing the research to come up with this great list of phobias. In his article, "Scared of the weather? You're not alone!" Tony expands upon a recent article that appeared in the Washington Post about phobias related to the weather. He also shares a list of phobias I found interesting, and thought you might, as well.
I meet so many individuals across New England who fear the weather, and have found that nearly without exception, education makes all the difference in the world. Of course, I don't mean simple education of how weather works, but rather, the intricate details and the explanation of WHY certain weather safety tips exist, and the scientific reasoning behind "safe places" from various weather events. These conversations don't have to be extensive to allay a fear enough for someone to face their nemesis weather event the next time it appears, though I almost always suggest additional research online, and even some professional help if the phobia doesn't ease with the acquisition of new knowledge.
Do you have another fear or phobia that isn't included here? Do you know of one you'd like to add? Have you experienced or know someone who experienced one or more of these fears, and found a way to overcome it? Share any of these things in the comments section of this post!
This isn't quite a weather story, but I figure most of us who frequent this website share a love for New England and nature at large, and figured you'd want to read a few slightly "off topic" items. Click "Continue Reading" for more. -Matt
NOAA officials today issued a regulation that will implement new measures to protect endangered North Atlantic right whales.
The regulation will, for the first time, require large ships to reduce speeds to ten knots in areas where the whales feed and reproduce, as well as along migratory routes in between. The goal of the regulation is to reduce the risk of ship collisions with the whales.
Continue reading "Ship strike reduction rule aims to protect North Atlantic right whales" »
Looking for something to do in the Granite State this weekend? Continue reading this post for a detailed list from Stephanie Seacord at Leading Edge!
Continue reading "New Hampshire Weekend Events for the first weekend of October" »
Tonight, the topic of our changing climate came to the forefront for an
important and significant exchange in the Vice Presidential debate between Senator Joe Biden (D) and Governor Sarah Palin (R). Some very important differences in opinion were highlighted here. Click "Continue Reading" to read the transcript from the heart of this exchange on the causes of climate change, followed by my analysis of just how sound the science was behind each of their answers.
The latest hurricane forecast from Dr. William Gray (the "Hurricane Doctor") and Philip Klotzbach at Colorado State University is out, focusing upon the month of October.
"Information obtained through 30 September 2008 shows that we have so far experienced 124 percent of the average of a full season’s Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity and about 155 percent of the long-period average season through September. We correctly predicted above-average September NTC, although we predicted more activity than was observed.
Our October-only forecast calls for 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane and NTC activity of 35 which is well above the October-only average value of 18. This is due to..." Click here to link to the full report as a PDF file.
Well, here's the honest analysis: Kyle has strengthened. He's a hurricane and his thunderstorms near the center look better than ever, with infrared satellite imagery showing the coldest cloud tops of his lifetime. There are signs of these thunderstorms wrapping around the northwestern periphery of the storm, and Tropical Storm Warnings (for sustained winds of 39 mph or greater) are up for Eastern Maine, as well as a Hurricane Watch (the possibility, though not imminent, of 74 mph winds or greater), with a Tropical Storm Watch up all the way south through Portland to Cape Elizabeth, on the Southern Maine coastline. It's absolutely essential that folks prepare as directed by the National Weather Service. I'll write it again - it's absolutely essential that folks in the warned area prepare for tropical storm force winds by securing vessels on the dock, taking in lightweight objects, and being prepared for some power outages. Having said that, this meteorologist has serious doubts that we will get a single tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) gust in New England as Kyle passes by. Here's why:
that the storm will go just east of the National Hurricane Center track, passing just off the western coast of Nova Scotia (image is courtesy Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State Univ. For more info, click here).
that the result is a steadily weakening storm that is reduced to weak Tropical Storm or perhaps even Tropical Depression strength (sustained winds less than 39 mph) by the time it passes just west of Nova Scotia, and given the above factors I'd expect those winds to be on the east side of the stormPut all of this together, and I'd be surprised to find ANY gusts (let alone sustained wind) to tropical storm force - 34 mph or greater - on land in New England. The best chance may be at the buoy off the Downeast coast near Jonesport, at buoy #44027.
Is this wise to go against the National Hurricane Center's forecast? Am I jeopardizing lives and property by saying this? Well, keep in mind that I have the luxury of NOT being on the air this weekend - these are thoughts I can share with you between two weather-inclined folks. The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are among the best in the world - true experts in the field - and that's why all folks in the warned area MUST make preparations. Having said that, New England tropical cyclones are among the trickiest in the world, and Kyle is no exception to the rule. Sunday we'll find out what reality brings.
Do you think I'm nuts? Do you agree? Add your thoughts in the comments section!
Matt
